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2005 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2005 Virginia gubernatorial election
← 2001 November 8, 2005 2009 →
Turnout45.0% Decrease 1.4[1]
 
Nominee Tim Kaine Jerry Kilgore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,025,942 912,327
Percentage 51.7% 46.0%
Kaine:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kilgore:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tim Kaine
Democratic

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This article is part of a series about
Tim Kaine
Mayor of Richmond
Lieutenant Governor of Virginia
Chair of the DNC
Governor of Virginia
U.S. Senator from Virginia
Vice presidential campaign

The 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2005, to elect the Governor of Virginia. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine, the son-in-law to Linwood Holton, won the election. Virginia is the only state in the United States to prohibit governors from serving successive terms, meaning that the popular incumbent, Mark Warner, could not run for reelection.

While the previous Democratic Governor, Mark Warner, was credited with doing especially well for a Democrat in rural areas of the commonwealth, Kaine's win featured surprising triumphs in traditionally Republican areas such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and the Northern Virginia suburbs of Prince William County and Loudoun County, as well as impressive showings in Democratic strongholds such as Richmond and Norfolk.[2] This is the most recent election in which a Virginia Governor and Lieutenant Governor of opposite parties were elected.

Democratic primary

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Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jerry Kilgore 145,002 82.78
Republican George Fitch 30,168 17.22
Total votes 175,170 100.00

General election

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Candidates

The general election was expected to be close, with Independent candidate Russ Potts as a possible spoiler candidate. Kaine remained behind in polls throughout most of the campaign, at one point 10 points behind Kilgore, but captured a slight lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Kaine led in some polls for the first time in October 2005, and held his lead into the final week before the election.[4]

Kaine closely associated himself with popular outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Warner during his campaign; he won his race by a slightly larger margin than Warner. He promised homeowner tax relief, centrist fiscal leadership, and strong support for education.[5] A number of factors, from the sagging poll numbers of President George W. Bush to a public disgust over the death penalty ads run by Kilgore, have also been cited as key to his decisive win.[6][7]

The election was the most expensive in Virginia history, with the candidates combined raising over $42 million [8]

Campaign

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Kilgore resigned as attorney general in February 2005 to run for governor (as is the convention in Virginia) and easily won the primary election against Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch to become the Republican nominee. In the general election, he ran against Democratic nominee Tim Kaine, the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, and State Senator Russ Potts, a pro-choice Republican who ran as an independent candidate. Early in the race, Kilgore showed solid leads of ten points or more in the polls, but Kaine steadily closed the gap and ultimately defeated Kilgore by a margin of 52% to 46%.

Kilgore's campaign was at times criticized for taking steps to avoid debates; Kilgore refused to debate Potts for the majority of the campaign, at times leaving Kaine and Potts to debate each other in his absence. He agreed to debate only with Kaine, and only if the footage could not be aired in campaign commercials. During this debate, he refused to answer whether or not he would make abortion a crime. This apparent public moderation of his previously open and hard-line stance on abortion troubled some of his conservative supporters.

He was further criticized for failing to limit his negative advertisements to 50% of his campaign's total publicity as Kaine proposed. One such advertisement featured a father whose son had been murdered by a man who was on Virginia's death row; the father expressed doubt that the sentence would be carried out if Kaine were elected and alleged that Kaine would not even have authorized the execution of Adolf Hitler, based on an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch.[9] The negative reaction to the mention of Hitler combined with Kaine's pledge to carry out the death penalty and explanation of his personal opposition as arising from his Catholic faith helped to neutralize what many observers thought would've been a potent issue for Kilgore. Kaine's campaign also ran an ad entitled "Wrong" quoting many Virginia newspapers in their condemnation of Kilgore and his campaign ads which stated (all caps emphasis) "All these newspapers can't be WRONG: 'Jerry Kilgore's ads are a VILE attempt to manipulate for political gain. . . they TWIST the truth. . . and SMEAR Tim Kaine. . . Kilgore's attacks are DISHONEST. . . FALSELY accuse Kaine. . . and TAR a decent man. . . Kilgore CROSSED the line. . . DRAGGING Kaine's beliefs through the mud. . . Jerry Kilgore should APOLOGIZE to Tim Kaine.'"[10]

In trying to explain how a solid Republican could lose a traditionally Republican state by such a large margin, political commentators cited numerous key factors. Kaine's campaign had many political advantages, including his association with the state's popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner and defense of Warner's 2004 budget priorities, his "response ads" to Kilgore's death penalty advertisements where he spoke to voters about his religious convictions and as mentioned above, reminded them about how a large cross-section of Virginia media strongly condemned Kilgore for his negative death penalty ads, his relentless in-person campaigning across the state, and his opposition to tax increases. Experienced attorney Lawrence Roberts served as Kaine's campaign chairman.[11] In contrast, Kilgore's campaign had many political disadvantages, including a backlash over the death penalty ads that Kilgore's campaign ran in the fall, the relatively low poll numbers of then-President George W. Bush at the time of the election, and a bitter division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party over tax and spending priorities.

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Tossup October 25, 2005

Polling

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Source Date Kaine (D) Kilgore (R) Potts (I)
Survey USA[13] November 7, 2005 50% 45% 4%
Mason-Dixon[14] November 4, 2005 45% 44% 4%
Rasmussen[15] November 4, 2005 49% 46% 2%
Roanoke College[16] November 2, 2005 44% 36% 5%
Washington Post[17] October 30, 2005 47% 44% 4%
Rasmussen[18] October 28, 2005 46% 44% 4%
Mason-Dixon[19] October 25, 2005 42% 44% 5%
Rasmussen[20] October 24, 2005 46% 48% 2%
Hotline[21] October 18, 2005 40% 38% 5%
Survey USA[22] October 17, 2005 47% 45% 4%
Rasmussen[23] October 12, 2005 44% 46% 1%
Rasmussen[24] September 28, 2005 45% 45% 5%
Survey USA[25] September 19, 2005 43% 46% 4%
Mason-Dixon[26] September 18, 2005 40% 41% 6%
Rasmussen[27] September 16, 2005 40% 43% 5%
Survey USA[28] August 9, 2005 43% 48% 3%
Rasmussen[29] August 4, 2005 39% 45% 5%
Mason-Dixon[30] July 24, 2005 38% 37% 9%
Rasmussen[31] July 14, 2005 41% 47% 4%
Survey USA[32] June 30, 2005 39% 49% 5%
Rasmussen[33] June 16, 2005 40% 46% 2%
Survey USA[34] May 17, 2005 40% 44% 5%

Results

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Majority results by county, with Kaine (Dem.) in blue and Kilgore (Rep.) in red.
Virginia gubernatorial election, 2005[35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 1,025,942 51.72% −0.44%
Republican Jerry Kilgore 912,327 45.99% −1.04%
Independent Russ Potts 43,953 2.22%
Write-in 1,556 0.08% +0.04%
Majority 113,615 5.73% +0.60%
Turnout 1,983,778 44.96% −1.4%
Democratic hold Swing

Results by county and Independent city

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County[36] Kaine Votes Kilgore Votes Potts Votes Others Votes
Accomack 49.8% 3,860 48.5% 3,754 1.6% 126 0.1% 5
Albemarle 61.2% 18,455 36.4% 10,994 2.4% 711 0.0% 14
Alexandria 71.9% 25,061 26.3% 9,173 1.7% 605 0.1% 25
Alleghany 53.9% 2,907 44.0% 2,373 2.1% 115 0.0% 2
Amelia 37.0% 1,368 60.9% 2,251 2.0% 74 0.1% 3
Amherst 43.6% 3,576 54.2% 4,450 2.1% 175 0.0% 4
Appomattox 39.5% 1,804 58.3% 2,663 2.2% 99 0.1% 4
Arlington 74.3% 42,319 23.9% 13,631 1.7% 990 0.1% 49
Augusta 33.1% 6,395 63.1% 12,197 3.7% 721 0.1% 12
Bath 45.1% 729 53.2% 860 1.6% 26 0.1% 2
Bedford County 37.1% 7,524 60.8% 12,330 2.1% 420 0.1% 14
Bedford 49.1% 892 48.2% 877 2.6% 47 0.1% 2
Bland 36.8% 706 61.4% 1,176 1.8% 34 0.0% 0
Botetourt 39.4% 4,083 58.4% 6,053 2.2% 227 0.1% 10
Bristol 37.8% 1,548 61.5% 2,515 0.7% 27 0.0% 1
Brunswick 60.3% 2,691 39.0% 1,742 0.7% 31 0.0% 2
Buchanan 52.2% 3,171 47.3% 2,875 0.4% 27 0.1% 4
Buckingham 47.9% 1,822 50.0% 1,899 2.1% 80 0.0% 0
Buena Vista 51.9% 799 46.3% 713 1.8% 28 0.0% 0
Campbell 36.8% 5,319 61.3% 8,864 1.8% 264 0.1% 15
Caroline 53.7% 3,396 44.0% 2,786 2.2% 142 0.0% 1
Carroll 38.9% 2,942 59.2% 4,485 1.9% 143 0.0% 1
Charles City 69.1% 1,565 29.6% 671 1.3% 29 0.0% 0
Charlotte 43.2% 1,637 54.9% 2,078 1.8% 69 0.1% 2
Charlottesville 79.4% 8,018 18.5% 1,870 2.0% 205 0.1% 11
Chesapeake 50.3% 26,612 47.1% 24,885 2.6% 1,357 0.1% 34
Chesterfield 44.7% 40,134 53.6% 48,112 1.7% 1,484 0.1% 81
Clarke 45.0% 2,225 47.6% 2,350 7.3% 363 0.1% 4
Colonial Heights 29.4% 1,777 68.2% 4,116 2.4% 143 0.0% 2
Covington 61.5% 1,022 35.3% 587 3.2% 53 0.0% 0
Craig 42.4% 754 54.8% 975 2.7% 48 0.2% 3
Culpeper 38.0% 3,689 59.4% 5,762 2.5% 242 0.1% 5
Cumberland 43.8% 1,144 54.3% 1,420 1.9% 50 0.0% 0
Danville 53.3% 6,052 45.6% 5,177 1.0% 119 0.0% 2
Dickenson 48.0% 2,377 51.6% 2,559 0.4% 18 0.1% 3
Dinwiddie 46.4% 3,168 51.6% 3,523 1.9% 131 0.1% 4
Emporia 48.6% 796 49.8% 815 1.6% 26 0.0% 0
Essex 48.7% 1,500 49.8% 1,533 1.5% 45 0.0% 0
Fairfax County 60.1% 163,667 38.0% 103,285 1.8% 4,907 0.1% 241
Fairfax 57.2% 3,865 40.7% 2,750 2.0% 132 0.1% 9
Falls Church 72.5% 3,138 25.5% 1,102 1.8% 77 0.2% 10
Fauquier 43.4% 7,746 53.3% 9,505 3.2% 576 0.1% 20
Floyd 44.4% 1,959 52.7% 2,324 2.9% 129 0.0% 0
Fluvanna 49.7% 3,592 47.8% 3,456 2.5% 178 0.0% 1
Franklin County 44.9% 7,017 52.2% 8,157 2.8% 441 0.0% 3
Franklin 57.5% 1,394 40.8% 988 1.7% 41 0.0% 0
Frederick 33.7% 6,027 59.8% 10,698 6.3% 1,125 0.1% 26
Fredericksburg 60.8% 2,611 36.4% 1,561 2.7% 118 0.1% 4
Galax 50.0% 730 47.5% 693 2.5% 36 0.0% 0
Giles 49.3% 2,570 48.1% 2,507 2.5% 132 0.1% 5
Gloucester 39.6% 3,985 56.6% 5,688 3.7% 373 0.1% 12
Goochland 42.4% 3,292 55.6% 4,313 1.9% 146 0.1% 5
Grayson 40.3% 1,875 58.3% 2,710 1.4% 66 0.0% 0
Greene 41.1% 1,846 56.3% 2,526 2.6% 115 0.0% 1
Greensville 55.8% 1,833 43.4% 1,424 0.8% 25 0.0% 1
Halifax 43.8% 3,931 54.5% 4,887 1.7% 149 0.1% 5
Hampton 63.8% 20,961 33.7% 11,078 2.5% 814 0.1% 25
Hanover 36.3% 12,784 61.5% 21,637 2.2% 770 0.1% 19
Harrisonburg 51.0% 3,539 46.8% 3,251 2.0% 138 0.2% 12
Henrico 53.2% 49,170 45.1% 41,619 1.6% 1,492 0.1% 78
Henry 50.8% 7,454 47.8% 7,004 1.4% 198 0.0% 3
Highland 39.5% 478 57.8% 700 2.6% 32 0.1% 1
Hopewell 45.1% 2,300 53.0% 2,705 1.8% 90 0.1% 4
Isle of Wight 45.7% 4,664 51.5% 5,262 2.8% 285 0.0% 4
James City 48.5% 10,205 48.0% 10,104 3.3% 704 0.1% 16
King and Queen 54.3% 1,114 43.7% 896 2.0% 40 0.0% 1
King George 43.0% 2,042 54.1% 2,569 2.8% 133 0.1% 5
King William 42.7% 1,951 54.9% 2,509 2.4% 108 0.0% 2
Lancaster 44.2% 2,043 53.3% 2,463 2.4% 113 0.1% 6
Lee 34.4% 2,453 65.0% 4,640 0.6% 42 0.0% 0
Lexington 64.6% 1,097 33.4% 567 1.9% 33 0.0% 0
Loudoun 51.6% 31,074 45.8% 27,539 2.5% 1,501 0.1% 65
Louisa 45.9% 3,716 51.7% 4,179 2.4% 193 0.0% 2
Lunenburg 45.3% 1,490 53.2% 1,749 1.5% 48 0.1% 2
Lynchburg 50.9% 8,329 47.1% 7,708 1.9% 308 0.2% 27
Madison 43.2% 1,672 54.4% 2,105 2.3% 90 0.1% 4
Manassas 46.2% 3,167 51.6% 3,532 2.1% 147 0.1% 4
Manassas Park 45.7% 650 52.8% 751 1.4% 20 0.1% 2
Martinsville 62.4% 2,363 36.4% 1,380 1.1% 43 0.1% 2
Mathews 40.7% 1,452 54.5% 1,946 4.8% 170 0.0% 0
Mecklenburg 42.8% 2,986 55.4% 3,864 1.9% 131 0.0% 0
Middlesex 40.2% 1,530 57.0% 2,167 2.7% 104 0.0% 1
Montgomery 55.4% 11,509 41.8% 8,670 2.7% 560 0.1% 19
Nelson 55.4% 2,755 42.5% 2,113 2.1% 102 0.0% 2
New Kent 40.4% 2,241 57.3% 3,179 2.3% 127 0.0% 2
Newport News 57.4% 21,743 39.9% 15,095 2.6% 992 0.1% 42
Norfolk 66.1% 27,791 30.7% 12,899 3.1% 1,290 0.1% 50
Northampton 60.8% 2,058 37.1% 1,256 2.2% 73 0.0% 0
Northumberland 44.3% 2,104 53.6% 2,548 2.0% 95 0.1% 6
Norton 44.9% 449 54.0% 539 1.1% 11 0.0% 0
Nottoway 49.9% 1,993 48.6% 1,942 1.5% 59 0.0% 0
Orange 45.5% 3,888 52.4% 4,481 2.1% 182 0.0% 0
Page 38.7% 2,385 58.2% 3,591 3.0% 185 0.1% 4
Patrick 41.7% 2,111 56.4% 2,853 1.8% 93 0.1% 4
Petersburg 81.8% 5,995 17.4% 1,274 0.8% 59 0.0% 2
Pittsylvania 37.7% 6,363 60.8% 10,252 1.5% 250 0.0% 6
Poquoson 34.2% 1,383 62.2% 2,515 3.5% 143 0.1% 3
Portsmouth 65.7% 16,314 31.9% 7,926 2.3% 560 0.1% 17
Powhatan 32.3% 2,744 65.6% 5,580 2.0% 170 0.1% 6
Prince Edward 52.1% 2,546 46.2% 2,259 1.7% 85 0.0% 1
Prince George 40.9% 3,382 57.5% 4,751 1.6% 130 0.0% 3
Prince William 49.9% 33,364 48.2% 32,178 1.8% 1,220 0.1% 35
Pulaski 46.5% 4,427 51.4% 4,901 2.1% 199 0.0% 0
Radford 54.2% 1,928 43.1% 1,534 2.6% 94 0.1% 2
Rappahannock 51.1% 1,397 47.0% 1,283 1.8% 50 0.1% 2
Richmond County 39.3% 863 58.8% 1,293 1.9% 42 0.0% 0
Richmond 75.9% 38,900 22.5% 11,529 1.5% 769 0.1% 40
Roanoke County 44.7% 14,125 52.8% 16,686 2.4% 755 0.1% 29
Roanoke 61.8% 14,207 35.9% 8,239 2.2% 505 0.1% 21
Rockbridge 46.1% 2,993 51.6% 3,354 2.2% 142 0.1% 5
Rockingham 32.4% 6,560 65.5% 13,262 2.0% 404 0.1% 19
Russell 43.9% 3,431 55.2% 4,314 0.9% 69 0.0% 0
Salem 47.1% 3,788 49.7% 3,993 3.0% 242 0.1% 12
Scott 26.2% 2,156 73.2% 6,016 0.5% 43 0.0% 0
Shenandoah 32.4% 3,996 63.9% 7,874 3.6% 438 0.1% 12
Smyth 36.7% 2,989 62.1% 5,053 1.1% 91 0.0% 2
Southampton 49.8% 2,442 48.0% 2,354 2.2% 110 0.0% 1
Spotsylvania 43.8% 11,061 54.0% 13,635 2.1% 533 0.2% 38
Stafford 43.6% 10,924 54.1% 13,559 2.2% 564 0.1% 28
Staunton 50.0% 3,384 46.0% 3,112 4.0% 270 0.0% 3
Suffolk 53.7% 10,480 43.9% 8,561 2.3% 456 0.1% 12
Surry 60.7% 1,480 37.7% 919 1.5% 37 0.1% 3
Sussex 54.5% 1,739 43.9% 1,401 1.5% 48 0.0% 0
Tazewell 40.8% 4,194 58.1% 5,970 1.0% 106 0.0% 4
Virginia Beach 48.6% 47,120 48.0% 46,471 3.3% 3,178 0.1% 120
Warren 40.3% 3,408 55.7% 4,705 3.9% 329 0.1% 9
Washington 33.9% 5,188 65.4% 10,009 0.7% 108 0.0% 5
Waynesboro 44.5% 2,223 51.9% 2,596 3.6% 181 0.0% 0
Westmoreland 52.3% 2,219 45.4% 1,924 2.2% 93 0.1% 3
Williamsburg 60.5% 1,782 36.7% 1,081 2.7% 80 0.0% 1
Winchester 45.1% 2,683 42.0% 2,497 12.8% 763 0.1% 8
Wise 38.2% 3,871 61.2% 6,190 0.6% 56 0.0% 5
Wythe 37.8% 3,125 59.9% 4,954 2.2% 185 0.1% 5
York 44.4% 8,142 52.1% 9,565 3.4% 620 0.1% 16

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Virginia Department of Elections (2016). "Registration/Turnout Statistics". The Commonwealth of Virginia. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 25, 2016.
  2. ^ Shear, Michael D. (October 18, 2005). "Kaine Sounds Slow-Growth Note in Exurbs". Washington Post.
  3. ^ "Primary Election- June 14, 2005". Archived from the original on August 13, 2013. Retrieved May 30, 2013.
  4. ^ VA: Kaine 49% Kilgore 46% Archived 2005-11-06 at the Wayback Machine – Rasmussen Reports, November 4, 2005
  5. ^ Brodnitz, Pete. "Why Tim Kaine Won". www.bsgco.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2016. Retrieved June 3, 2016.
  6. ^ "Death penalty demagoguery" Archived 2012-09-17 at archive.today. (October 13, 2005). The Roanoke Times.
  7. ^ "RealClear Politics – 2005 Virginia Gubernatorial Election". Retrieved November 4, 2005.
  8. ^ "Virginia governor's race a costly one", (October 31, 2005) USA Today
  9. ^ "No Death Penalty For Hitler? GOP Ad Goes Too Far - Factcheck.org". Archived from the original on November 29, 2006. Retrieved November 30, 2006.
  10. ^ Richmond Times-Dispatch, October 26, 2005
  11. ^ Kaine provides Clinton ticket with more lobbying, fundraising ties – UPI.com
  12. ^ "The 2005 Off-Off-Year Elections: Hardfast Harbinger or Harmless Happenstance? | Sabato's Crystal Ball".
  13. ^ Survey USA
  14. ^ Mason-Dixon [permanent dead link]
  15. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-06 at the Wayback Machine
  16. ^ Roanoke College
  17. ^ Washington Post
  18. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-05 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Mason-Dixon
  20. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2006-01-01 at the Wayback Machine
  21. ^ Hotline
  22. ^ Survey USA
  23. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-10-18 at the Wayback Machine
  24. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-23 at the Wayback Machine
  25. ^ Survey USA
  26. ^ Mason-Dixon [permanent dead link]
  27. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-23 at the Wayback Machine
  28. ^ Survey USA
  29. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-10-25 at the Wayback Machine
  30. ^ Mason-Dixon
  31. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-12-25 at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Survey USA
  33. ^ Rasmussen Archived 2005-06-18 at the Wayback Machine
  34. ^ Survey USA
  35. ^ General Election- November 8, 2005
  36. ^ "Virginia Elections Database – 2005 Governor General Election". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved October 31, 2019.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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