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Hertsmere (UK Parliament constituency)

Coordinates: 51°40′N 0°16′W / 51.667°N 0.267°W / 51.667; -0.267
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Hertsmere
County constituency
for the House of Commons
Map
Boundaries since 2024
Map of constituency
Boundary of Hertsmere in the East of England
CountyHertfordshire
Electorate73,256 (2023)[1]
Major settlementsBorehamwood, Potters Bar and Bushey
Current constituency
Created1983
Member of ParliamentOliver Dowden (Conservative)
SeatsOne
Created fromSouth Hertfordshire and South West Hertfordshire[2]

Hertsmere is a constituency[n 1] in Hertfordshire, England, represented in the House of Commons since 2015 by Sir Oliver Dowden of the Conservative Party, who is the former deputy prime minister.[n 2]

Constituency profile

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Just beyond the northwestern boundary of Greater London and with fast railway links into the capital, Hertsmere is a Parliamentary constituency in the Home Counties. The constituency is in the London Commuter Belt, largely inside London's orbital motorway, the M25, and within the London green belt, in the South-West of Hertfordshire. Political consultancy Electoral Calculus classifies the constituency's population as broadly Conservative 'kind yuppies'.[3] Hertsmere has the third-highest Jewish population of any UK Parliamentary constituency.[4]

According to the census for England and Wales, the population of the Hertsmere local authority area (which presently corresponds to the area of the Parliamentary constituency) has increased by 7.8%, from around 100,000 in 2011 to 107,800 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800, but slightly lower than the increase for the East of England region that Hertsmere belongs to (8.3%). The fastest growing age group in Hertsmere is the over-65s, which has increased since 2011 by 17.6%, close to the overall rate of growth for this age group in England (20.1%).[5]

Parts of the constituency are among the most prosperous in Britain but 2015 data from the English Multiple deprivation index for the Borough of Hertsmere shows widely varying levels of deprivation, with overall deprivation levels – on a scale from 1 (the most deprived) to 32,844 (the least deprived) – ranging from 3,049 for Borehamwood Cowley Hill, the most deprived area in Hertfordshire and in the 10% most deprived nationally, to 32,695 for Bushey Heath, in the 1% least deprived.[6]

The constituency of Hertsmere has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every general election since its creation and has been a safe seat almost throughout, with majorities ranging from 3,075 in 1997 (the election in which Labour won 418 Parliamentary seats, the largest number ever held by a single party) to 21,313 in 2019 (when the Conservative Party won 317 seats and a Parliamentary majority of 85). A close result for second place occurred in 2010, with only 661 votes separating the Labour Party and Liberal Democrat candidates.

In the history of the constituency the Liberal Democrat vote share has fallen substantially, from a quarter of the vote and second place ahead of Labour in 1983, to less than half that and third place in 2019. In 2015 the party fell to fourth place.

Boundaries and composition

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1983–1997

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  • The Borough of Hertsmere; and
  • The City of St Albans ward of London Colney.[7]

The new county constituency was formed largely from the bulk of the abolished constituency of South Hertfordshire. It also included the area comprising the former Urban District of Bushey, transferred from South West Hertfordshire.

Map
Map of boundaries 2010-2024

1997–2024

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  • The Borough of Hertsmere.[8]

From 1997 to 2024 the constituency was coterminous with the borough of Hertsmere in southern Hertfordshire (before then it had also included the City of St Albans ward of London Colney, which was transferred to the St Albans constituency).

Following its review of parliamentary representation in Hertfordshire, the Boundary Commission recommended no changes to constituency boundaries for the 2010 general election. The seat contained these electoral wards:

  • Aldenham East, Aldenham West, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Borehamwood Cowley Hill, Borehamwood Hillside, Borehamwood Kenilworth, Bushey Heath, Bushey North, Bushey Park, Bushey St James, Elstree, Potters Bar Furzefield, Potters Bar Oakmere, Potters Bar Parkfield, Shenley.[9][10]

Current

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In 2021 the Boundary Commission for England, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, published draft changes to constituency boundaries. On 8 November 2022, the final draft of the Boundary Commission's proposals was published, following consultation. The revised Hertsmere CC (County Constituency) was as proposed in the previous draft and became effective for the 2024 general election.[11][12] Although the electorate of the constituency was within 5% of the new 'electoral quota' of 73,393, the commission proposed that changes be made to enable neighbouring constituencies to remain within the electoral range. The borough ward of Bushey North, previously in the Hertsmere constituency, joined the Watford constituency and the Welwyn Hatfield borough ward of Northaw and Cuffley, previously in the Broxbourne constituency, joined Hertsmere.[13] The new Hertsmere constituency contains an electorate of approximately 73,256.[14]

Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.

Members of Parliament

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This safe Conservative constituency was created in 1983 from the former seat of South Hertfordshire. Cecil Parkinson, who had entered Parliament in 1970 and had previously represented South Hertfordshire, was MP from the seat's creation until his retirement in 1992. He was a close ally of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and had run her successful 1983 election campaign.[15] Parkinson stepped down from government on the day of Thatcher's resignation as Conservative Party leader.[16]

James Clappison held the seat for five electoral terms, from 1992 until his decision to stand down from parliament at the 2015 general election.[17]

The seat was subsequently won by Oliver Dowden.[18]

Election Member[19] Party
1983 Cecil Parkinson Conservative
1992 James Clappison Conservative
2015 Oliver Dowden Conservative

Elections

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Elections in the 2020s

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General election 2024: Hertsmere[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Oliver Dowden 21,451 44.7 −20.2
Labour Josh Tapper 13,459 28.0 +6.9
Reform UK Darren Selkus 6,584 13.7 N/A
Liberal Democrats Emma Matanle 3,710 7.7 −3.2
Green John Humphries 2,267 4.7 +1.6
Independent Ray Bolster 536 1.1 N/A
Majority 7,992 16.7 −24.1
Turnout 48,007 65.3 –6.4
Registered electors 73,518
Conservative hold Swing –13.6

Elections in the 2010s

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2019 notional result[21]
Party Vote %
Conservative 34,083 64.9
Labour 11,103 21.1
Liberal Democrats 5,713 10.9
Green 1,614 3.1
Turnout 52,513 71.7
Electorate 73,256
General election 2019: Hertsmere[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Oliver Dowden 32,651 62.5 +1.4
Labour Holly Kal-Weiss 11,338 21.7 −7.0
Liberal Democrats Stephen Barrett 6,561 12.6 +7.3
Green John Humphries 1,653 3.2 +1.3
Majority 21,313 40.8 +8.4
Turnout 52,203 70.6 −0.6
Conservative hold Swing +4.2
General election 2017: Hertsmere[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Oliver Dowden 31,928 61.1 +1.8
Labour Fiona Smith 14,977 28.7 +6.3
Liberal Democrats Joe Jordan 2,794 5.3 −0.2
UKIP David Hoy 1,564 3.0 −9.7
Green Sophie Summerhayes 990 1.9 New
Majority 16,951 32.4 −4.5
Turnout 52,389 71.2 +3.3
Conservative hold Swing −2.3
General election 2015: Hertsmere[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Oliver Dowden 29,696 59.3 +3.3
Labour Richard Butler[26] 11,235 22.4 +3.6
UKIP Frank Ward 6,383 12.7 +9.1
Liberal Democrats Sophie Bowler 2,777 5.5 −11.9
Majority 18,461 36.9 −0.3
Turnout 50,091 67.9 +3.2
Conservative hold Swing -0.2
General election 2010: Hertsmere[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Clappison 26,476 56.0 +2.8
Labour Sam Russell 8,871 18.8 −8.4
Liberal Democrats Anthony Rowlands 8,210 17.4 −1.0
UKIP David Rutter 1,712 3.6 New
BNP Daniel Seabrook 1,397 3.0 New
Green Arjuna Krishna-Das 604 1.3 New
Majority 17,605 37.2 +11.2
Turnout 47,270 64.7 +1.7
Conservative hold Swing +5.6

Elections in the 2000s

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General election 2005: Hertsmere[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Clappison 22,665 53.2 +5.4
Labour Kelly Tebb 11,572 27.2 −8.8
Liberal Democrats Jonathan Davies 7,817 18.4 +3.2
Socialist Labour James Dry 518 1.2 +0.2
Majority 11,093 26.0 +14.2
Turnout 42,572 63.0 +2.7
Conservative hold Swing +7.1
General election 2001: Hertsmere[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Clappison 19,855 47.8 +3.5
Labour Hilary Broderick 14,953 36.0 −2.2
Liberal Democrats Paul Thompson 6,300 15.2 +2.4
Socialist Labour James Dry 397 1.0 New
Majority 4,902 11.8 +5.7
Turnout 41,505 60.3 −13.7
Conservative hold Swing +2.9

Elections in the 1990s

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General election 1997: Hertsmere[30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Clappison 22,305 44.3 −12.5
Labour Beth Kelly 19,230 38.2 +14.5
Liberal Democrats Ann Gray 6,466 12.8 −6.1
Referendum James Marlow 1,703 3.4 New
UKIP Rodney Saunders 453 0.9 New
Natural Law Nigel Kahn 191 0.4 New
Majority 3,075 6.1 −27.0
Turnout 50,348 74.0 −6.9
Conservative hold Swing -13.5
General election 1992: Hertsmere[31][32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Clappison 32,133 56.8 +0.2
Labour David Souter 13,398 23.7 +4.1
Liberal Democrats Zerbanoo Gifford 10,681 18.9 −4.9
Natural Law Diana Harding 373 0.7 New
Majority 18,735 33.1 +0.3
Turnout 56,585 80.9 +5.5
Conservative hold Swing −2.1

Elections in the 1980s

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General election 1987: Hertsmere[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Cecil Parkinson 31,278 56.6 +3.4
Liberal Laurence Brass 13,172 23.8 −1.8
Labour Frank Ward 10,835 19.6 +0.4
Majority 18,106 32.8 +5.2
Turnout 55,285 75.4 +1.7
Conservative hold Swing +2.6
General election 1983: Hertsmere[34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Cecil Parkinson 28,628 53.2
Liberal Zerbanoo Gifford 13,758 25.6
Labour Ian Reed 10,315 19.2
Independent Communist Ronald Parkinson 1,116 2.1
Majority 14,870 27.6
Turnout 53,817 73.7
Conservative win (new seat)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ A county constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer).
  2. ^ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References

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  1. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 26 June 2024.
  2. ^ "'Hertsmere', June 1983 up to May 1997". ElectionWeb Project. Cognitive Computing Limited. Archived from the original on 12 March 2016. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
  3. ^ "Electoral Calculus".
  4. ^ "UK Polling Report".
  5. ^ "How the population changed in Hertsmere: Census 2021". Census 2021. UK Office of National Statistics. 28 June 2022. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
  6. ^ "Hertsmere Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015" (PDF). Hertsmere Borough Council. 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
  7. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
  8. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
  9. ^ "2015 proposed map" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 October 2012. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
  10. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
  11. ^ "constituency map for proposed Hertsmere CC" (PDF). Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
  12. ^ "Revised proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the Eastern region". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
  13. ^ "Boundary review 2023: Which seats will change?". commonslibrary.parliament.uk. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
  14. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern | Boundary Commission for England". boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  15. ^ Beattie, Jason (25 January 2016). "Late Cecil Parkinson was a hero to Tories - but a missing dad to girl he wouldn't love". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
  16. ^ "Obituary: Cecil Parkinson". BBC News. 25 January 2015. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
  17. ^ Ikonen, Charlotte (3 July 2014). "Hertsmere MP James Clappison to stand down at next election". Watford Observer.
  18. ^ Rambhai, Jyoti (8 May 2015). "Oliver Dowden retains Conservative seat in Hertsmere". Watford Observer.
  19. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "H" (part 3)
  20. ^ "Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). Hertsmere Borough Council. 7 June 2024. Retrieved 8 June 2024.
  21. ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  22. ^ "Hertsmere Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  23. ^ "Declaration of Result of Poll" (PDF). Acting Returning Officer. 9 June 2017. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
  24. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  25. ^ "Statement Of Persons Nominated And Notice Of Poll". Acting Returning Officer. 9 April 2015. Retrieved 14 April 2015.
  26. ^ "UK ELECTION RESULTS: Hertsmere 2015".
  27. ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  28. ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  29. ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  30. ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  31. ^ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  32. ^ "UK General Election results April 1992". Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  33. ^ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  34. ^ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
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51°40′N 0°16′W / 51.667°N 0.267°W / 51.667; -0.267

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